Abstract
Risk management in credit activity is essential to ensure continuity and financial performance of the enterprise. In credit unions attention to this risk allows the reduction of losses, plus the interest charges and fees less (Ahlin; LIN; MAY, 2010). The study aims to establish the threshold of positive exposure to the growth of lending activities of credit unions. Finance Theory substantiates the research, with the determination of risk arising from the positive result greater than projected, the natural risk in activities (KALDOR, 1939). We analyzed a sample of 10 credit unions with data for the period 2001 to 2010. Verhulst's model (1845) was used for establishing the risk of natural and positive risk limit of credit unions. The data analysis shows, under current conditions, the range of growth by optimizing risk shows a positive track in which cooperatives can enhance performance in credit activity. We conclude that the limit of positive exposure determined the degree of development possible, keeping the balanced performance, it was possible to establish the current parameters and performance for credit unions, with the observation that exceed this limit, cooperatives come in turbulent environment, which contributes to the establishment of institutional goals, so equalized the credit activity in credit unions.
